How To Read Sports Odds Over Under
The 2020 MLB season has been released with a shortened 60 game schedule beginning on July 23rd. This MLB Vegas Odds page will be updated daily with money line betting odds on each.
Please note that this is an archived post. Here, we describe the 1st edition of our Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Betting Course. We decided not to remove this post from the site because of the many questions and answers in the comments section. For those of you with curious minds it may also be quite interesting to see how this product has developed over the years.
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Here’s the link to the product specifics of the 2nd edition: Fundamentals of Sports Betting
Soccerwidow’s Over Under Betting Course takes the bettor through probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation, and explains these technical terms in easy language.
There are plenty of exercises to help hone your skills, and you will also learn to download historical data and analyse it using calculation software such as Excel.
The course explains in detail how to evaluate teams and compile your own ‘true’ odds for the Over Under betting market which can then be compared to the market prices.
You will be taught the process of calculating value, clustering data, understanding probabilities, and computing potential profit and loss from anticipated bets.
This book is essential reading for anyone looking to understand odds calculation and take their betting to another level.
Over Under Football Betting Course – How to Calculate Odds, Identify Value Bets and Develop a Successful Betting Strategy
Why do I need to know how to calculate odds?
Enthusiasm for sports betting is good and fine, but there is much more needed to actually become a winner.
The majority of bettors use their hearts, gut feelings, and hunches to place their bets. They then perhaps do a little research and despite getting the best odds available in the markets, and using various bookmaker accounts, they wonder why they lose more than they win in the long run.
The answer is simple; to make a regular profit and keep on winning not only requires a disciplined approach but also a thorough understanding of odds calculation.
Further reading:
Psychology of Gambling and the Importance of a Staking Plan
Value Betting versus Gut Feeling
What knowledge is required to understand this course?
This is a beginner’s course, and aiming at people with little odds calculation knowledge and basic Excel skills.
The course is written on a level which does not require higher maths than O-levels. Still, the course may be quite difficult for those who have always found maths a challenge. Just take your time, read each chapter several times, solve all the exercises before moving on to the next section, and try to understand everything. Ultimately, you will be rewarded with knowledge.
To ensure proper understanding, the course contains no shortcuts. All calculations need to be done manually. There are plenty of exercises to guide the learning process and the aim is that once you master the course, you should be able to develop your own betting system which should hopefully turn you into a winner.
All formulas are given and explained either in the chapter of each exercise, or at the end which contains the solutions to all of the exercises.
You are welcome to ask specific questions via the comment functions in any article on the Soccerwidow website; we usually reply within a few hours and are more than happy to help.
Further reading:
Heart Beats Brain – Is Accurate Forecasting of Specific Results in Football Matches Possible?
Probability, Expectation, Hit Rate, Value, Mathematical Advantage: Explained
Are the principles and analysis techniques in this course
transferrable to other football leagues?
Absolutely – although the course uses the German Bundesliga as its example to outline principles and techniques to analyse a league’s goal distribution, the methodology is equally applicable to any world football league and indeed, relevant to all other professional sports.
Furthermore, the Odds Calculation Course uses the Over Under Goals market as its theme and the approaches demonstrated are timeless, using fundamental statistical principles for practical football betting applications. They are also usable for odds calculation in other betting markets (e.g. both teams to score, clean sheets, etc.).
Anything with historical data available and which is countable can be statistically analysed. Once the distributions are known, forecasts and projections for the future are possible.
Further reading:
Goal Distribution Comparison – EPL, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie
How Bookmakers’ Odds Match Public Opinion
Contents of the Odds Calculation Course:
Section A: Basic Knowledge
Probabilities, Odds, Value, Profit and Loss Calculation:
1. Calculation of Expected Market Prices- Goals in the German Bundesliga
- Exercises in calculating percentages
- Expected odds for the Bundesliga
- Exercises in calculating probability and odds
2. Evaluation of Individual Teams
- Exercises in interpreting graphs
- Computing the ‘zero’ (fair/ true) odds
- How is ‘value’ calculated?
- Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss
Section B: Cluster Groups and Betting Tables
Developing a Betting Strategy:
3. Building Cluster Groups- What are cluster groups?
- Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams
- Exercises in cluster group building
4. Betting Tables: Over/Under ‘X’ Goals Market
- How to read and understand the betting tables
- Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds
- Finding potential value bets in the betting tables
- Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets
Football Betting Odds Calculation Course
How to Calculate Odds – Over / Under ‘X’ Goals
PRODUCT SUMMARY (1st EDITION)
- Format: PDF
- Download Size: 1.29 MB
- Publisher: Hertis Services Ltd; 1st edition(February 2012)
- Pages: 69
- Example Tables: 44
- Practise Exercises and Questions: Over 40(Answers provided)
- Language: ENGLISH
But there is a new, revised version of the course packing an extra 100 pages of invaluable information: Fundamentals of Sports Betting
The book has undergone a transformation to become a complete guide to betting for long-term profit, including everything customers of the first edition asked, either by commenting here on this page (see below), or by contacting us directly by email.
My advice would be to purchase Soccerwidow’s ‘How to calculate Odds’ workbook.
It’s extremely comprehensive and anything I didn’t understand I googled, and googled again,
and still google. It will probably be a few months before I understand it fully
but as I bet on both soccer & Australian Rules Football I found it invaluable.
I can’t wait for your next article.
Mark
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It may be several months late, but the 2020 Masters is finally here, bringing it with several enticing storylines and betting odds.
That starts with Bryson DeChambeau, the favorite to win at Augusta National Golf Club after his win in the 2020 U.S. Open in September. His power-based approach to the game has been controversial to say the least, but you can't deny its effectiveness in recent outings.
Other golfers to look out for include 2020 FedEx Cup Champion Dustin Johnson, world No. 2 Jon Rahm and, of course, Tiger Woods — the 2019 champion looking for not only his second consecutive Masters win but also his record-tying sixth green jacket.
With that, here's everything you need to know to bet on the 2020 Masters, including odds and past winners:
Who will win the Masters Tournament in 2020?
DeChambeau is the odds-on favorite after having won the 2020 U.S. Open with a score of 6-under 274. Johnson, Rahm and Thomas, the world Nos. 1-3 golfers, respectively, enter at +1200, +1100 and +1200, respectively.
DeChambeau will look for a second major win in as many months, but Woods, the defending champion, will look to earn a second-consecutive win at Augusta as well. He enters with +2700 odds overall.
Masters Tournament odds 2020
DeChambeau enters the 2020 Masters as the clear favorite to win, at +750 odds overall. Below are the top odds to win the 2020 Masters:
Golfer | Odds |
Bryson Dechambeau | +750 |
Jon Rahm | +1100 |
Rory McIlroy | +1100 |
Dustin Johnson | +1200 |
Justin Thomas | +1200 |
Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
Brooks Koepka | +1800 |
Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
Bubba Watson | +2700 |
Collin Morikawa | +2700 |
Patrick Reed | +2700 |
Tiger Woods | +2700 |
Tyrrell Hatton | +2900 |
Webb Simpson | +2900 |
Matthew Wolff | +3300 |
Tony Finau | +3300 |
Hideki Matsuyama | +3700 |
Tommy Fleetwood | +3700 |
Jordan Spieth | +4100 |
Adam Scott | +4200 |
Jason Day | +5000 |
Justin Rose | +5000 |
Louis Oosthuizen | +5000 |
Paul Casey | +5000 |
Rickie Fowler | +5000 |
Scottie Scheffler | +5000 |
Sergio Garcia | +5000 |
Shane Lowry | +5000 |
Sungjae Im | +5000 |
Cameron Champ | +6500 |
Gary Woodland | +6500 |
JoaquIn Niemann | +6500 |
Marc Leishman | +6500 |
Matt Kuchar | +6500 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | +6500 |
Phil Mickelson | +6500 |
Abraham Ancer | +8000 |
Cameron Smith | +8000 |
Danny Willett | +8000 |
Lee Westwood | +8000 |
Masters expert picks
The experts from BetQL.com picked Bryson DeChambeau (+800), Dustin Johnson (+900) and Xander Schauffele (+1500) among their favorite bets to win the 2020 Masters.
If you're looking for a sleeper pick, Patrick Cantlay (+2200), Tony Finau (+3100) and Tiger Woods (+3400) should be on your radar.
Read the full betting preview here.
Masters Tournament winners by year
Tiger enters the 2020 Masters looking for the tournament's first back-to-back championship since he won it all in 2001 and '02. Another win would give him his fifth overall win at Augusta since 2000 (he also won in 2005). Only Phil Mickelson (three) and Bubba Watson (two) have won multiple Masters tournaments since 2000.
How To Read Sports Odds Over Under 25
Below are the winners of the last 20 Masters, and their winning scores:
How To Read Sports Odds Over/under
Year | Winner | Score (to par) |
2019 | Tiger Woods | 275 (13-under) |
2018 | Patrick Reed | 273 (15-under) |
2017 | Sergio Garcia | 279 (9-under) |
2016 | Danny Willett | 283 (5-under) |
2015 | Jordan Spieth | 270 (18-under) |
2014 | Bubba Watson | 280 (8-under) |
2013 | Adam Scott | 279 (9-under) |
2012 | Bubba Watson | 278 (10-under) |
2011 | Charl Schwartzel | 274 (14-under) |
2010 | Phil Mickelson | 272 (16-under) |
2009 | Angel Cabrera | 276 (12-under) |
2008 | Trevor Immelman | 280 (8-under) |
2007 | Zach Johnson | 289 (1-over) |
2006 | Phil Mickelson | 281 (7-under) |
2005 | Tiger Woods | 276 (12-under) |
2004 | Phil Mickelson | 279 (9-under) |
2003 | Mike Weir | 281 (7-under) |
2002 | Tiger Woods | 276 (12-under) |
2001 | Tiger Woods | 272 (16-under) |
2000 | Vijay Singh | 270 (10-under) |